Mariners squeak past Red Sox in 11

Baseball Betting Lines

07/03/2009 - Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rob Johnson went 3-for-5 with three doubles, including a two-run double in the top of the 11th, to lift the Seattle Mariners past the AL East-leading Boston Red Sox, 7-6, in the opener of a three-game set at Fenway Park.

Ramon Ramirez (5-3), who took over on the mound for Boston in the top of the 11th, gave up a single to Franklin Gutierrez and walked Ryan Langerhans to put men on first and second. Chris Woodward moved the runners up a base with a sacrifice bunt. Johnson then stepped to the plate and laced the eventual game- winning hit down the right-field line.

Mark Lowe came on for the M's in the bottom half and made things interesting when he gave up a two-out solo homer to George Kottaras -- the first of his career. J.D. Drew then singled to right, but Lowe got Dustin Pedroia to ground into a fielder's choice to pick up his first save of the season.

Ronny Cedeno went 2-for-5 with a two-run home run for the Mariners, who have won four of six. Jose Lopez went 3-for-5 with a solo homer and a double for Seattle, which improved to 4-3 on a nine-game road trip. Langerhans had a pair of doubles and scored twice.

Felix Hernandez was strong in seven frames, remaining unbeaten in his last eight starts, allowing three runs on seven hits with seven strikeouts and two walks to take the no-decision for the Mariners. Chris Jakubauskas (5-5) tossed a scoreless ninth and 10th to collect the win.

Nick Green had a pair of doubles, including a two-run hit in the bottom of the eighth to tie the tilt, for the Red Sox, who have alternated wins and losses in their last six games. Drew added a solo homer for Boston, which started a 10-game homestand on Friday.

Tim Wakefield went eight frames, giving up five runs on 10 hits with three strikeouts to take the no-decision for the Red Sox. Wakefield made the 383rd start of his Boston career on Friday, passing Roger Clemens for the most in club history.

Ahead, 5-3, the M's sent Sean White to the mound to begin the bottom of the eighth, but he quickly ran into trouble. After getting David Ortiz to fly out, White walked Jason Bay and gave up a single to Mark Kotsay to put men on first and second. Shawn Kelley, who was activated from the 15-day DL on Friday, then took over on the bump and got Jacoby Ellsbury to fly out, but Green stepped to the plate and stroked a two-run double off the top of the Green Monster to tie the contest at five.

Manny Delcarmen retired Seattle in order in the top of the ninth, while Jakubauskas retired the Red Sox 1-2-3 in the bottom of the inning to send the game into extra frames.

The Red Sox drew first blood with a pair of runs in the first inning. Pedroia singled, and Ortiz walked to put men on first and second with two outs. Bay then stroked an RBI ground-rule double to right field. With Kotsay batting, Ortiz crossed the plate on a wild pitch from Hernandez for an early two-run cushion.

Seattle scored a run in the third to cut the deficit in half. Johnson doubled off the Green Monster, advanced to third on Ichiro Suzuki's single and scored on Russell Branyan's single to right.

The Mariners plated three runs in the fourth to take a 4-2 lead. Langerhans started things with a one-out double to center and scored two batters later when Johnson doubled off the Green Monster. Cedeno then stepped to the plate and drove a Wakefield offering over the wall in center.

Boston put men on second and third with two outs in the sixth, but Hernandez struck out Green looking to end the threat.

Drew's solo shot to center in the seventh brought the Red Sox within one, 4-3, but Lopez started the eighth with a homer over the Green Monster to restore Seattle's two run lead.

Game Notes

To make room on the roster for Kelley, the Mariners optioned infielder Mike Carp to Triple-A Tacoma on Friday...Seattle won two of three games from the Red Sox at Safeco Field from May 15-17 but are just 6-17 over their last 23 visits to Fenway Park. Seattle has not taken a series in Boston since winning two of three tests from August 14-16, 2001...Boston owns a league-best 35-11 mark at home this year.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Brandon Roy Favorite to Win 2007 NBA Rookie of the Year

Portland TrailBlazer’s guard, Brandon Roy, is MySportsbook.com’s overwhelming favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year odds.

Despite missing 20 games due to an injury earlier this season, Roy has definitely put up the best numbers of his 1st year peers. In 32 games, Roy is averaging 15.3 PPG, 4.2 boards and 3.5 assists in over 33 minutes of play per game. While most rookies breakdown as the season progresses (see Morrison), Roy is only getting stronger as his playing time and scoring average has increased each month.

With 30 or so games left in the regular season, Roy isn’t a lock for the award by any means. Other rookies are putting together some pretty impressive campaigns and a few could give Roy a run for the award with increased playing time. Heading the list is first pick, Andrea Bargnani of the Toronto Raptors. Even though he has started only two games all season, Bargnani is averaging 10.3 PPPG while shooting 35% from deep.

Randy Foye of the Minnesota Timberwolves could be set to give Roy the best competition NBA Rookie of the Year betting lines. With the benching of Mike James, Foye looks like he could be the starter in the T-Wolves backcourt for the rest of the season. So far, Foye has averaged 9 PPG and 2.4 assists in just under 21 minutes per game. With his new role of starter, Foye’s numbers will definitely increase. In his first game as the new starting guard this past Sunday, Foye had 10 points; five rebounds and 8 assists. More importantly, he logged 34 minutes of playing time; his third highest run of the season.

Adam Morrison, of the Charlotte Bobcats, was the favorite early on in the season after averaging 15+ PPG through the first month of the season. Ever since his torrid start, Morrison’s point production has declined each month. This really isn’t surprising, considering at 6’8” he only weighs 205 lbs. Obviously he will need to hit the weights big time during the off-season in order to keep from breaking down in the future.

Be sure to log on to MySportsbook.com to bet on the NBA. With the regular season about to hit the homestretch, it is important to point out that MySportsbook.com has the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry.

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