Busch, Edwards continue points battle at Dover

Autoracing Betting Lines

09/25/2009 - Dover, DE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Saturday, September 26. Race: Dover 200. Site: Dover International Speedway. Track: one- mile, concrete-surfaced oval. Start Time: 3:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles: 200. Defending Winner: Kyle Busch. Television: ESPN 2. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS XM Satellite.

After taking a week off, the Nationwide Series returns to action on Saturday at Dover.

Second-place Carl Edwards is currently 201 points behind leader Kyle Busch, but Edwards might be staging another late-season rally based on his most recent performance.

Driving with a broken right foot at Richmond, Edwards qualified 39th but had to start from the rear of the field since his team changed the spark plugs prior to the start of the race. The Roush Fenway Racing driver beat Kevin Harvick out of the pits and took the lead for the first time during a caution with 24 laps to go. He held off Harvick at the finish for his fourth Nationwide victory of the season.

Edwards has faced a triple-digit deficit in the series before. With eight races remaining in the 2008 season, he was 207 points behind Clint Bowyer before ending the year just 21 markers short of taking the title from Bowyer.

"The Nationwide battle is still alive," Edwards said. "We've got enough races left that a lot can happen. I feel like right now, in a way, that's more important than what's going on the Cup side."

Edwards has excelled on concrete-surfaced tracks, with five of his 24 career Nationwide wins coming on those tracks. He has finished sixth or better in the last five races at Dover, including a victory in the spring 2007 event.

Bristol, Dover and Nashville are the concrete-surfaced tracks on the Nationwide circuit.

Busch won at Dover for the first time one year ago. He appeared to be on his way to another victory there in May, but a late-race tangle with Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Joey Logano cost him the win. Brad Keselowski went to Victory Lane, while Busch ended up with a 17th-place finish after cutting a tire during the incident.

Forty-four teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Dover 200.

Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman and Martin Truex Jr. are among the 10 Sprint Cup regulars competing in the event.

Hamlin, Kenseth and Truex have two Nationwide victories each at Dover compared to one for Newman. Hamlin has won two of the last four races there.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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