Braves eye fifth straight win in the desert

Baseball Betting Lines

05/18/2011 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves will take their momentum to the road tonight in the opener of a two-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field.

Atlanta will also visit the Angels and Pirates on its seven-game trek and have won four straight and 12 of the last 16 games. It just swept the Houston Astros in a two-game series, as catcher Brain McCann came through in a big way yesterday afternoon in a 3-1 win in 11 innings. McCann tied the game at 1-1 with a pinch-hit home run in the bottom of the ninth and won it on a two-run shot in the home 11th.

"I was very pleased today. It doesn't get much better," McCann said. To see (starter) Derek Lowe pitch the way he did and come in and tie it up in the ninth then win it in extras was something special."

Lowe did not figure into the decision with seven innings of one-run ball and four strikeouts. Five relievers then kept the Astros off the scoreboard, with Cory Gearrin earning the win with a scoreless top of the 11th frame.

Martin Prado, the National League Player of the Week for May 9-15, recorded two hits for the Braves, who pulled within 1 1/2 games of Philadelphia for the top sot in the National League East Division. Jason Heyward was back in the starting lineup after he missed the previous six starts because of an inflamed right shoulder. Chipper Jones also returned from a two-game absence because of a small right knee tear.

Julio Teheran made his major league debut in a 3-0 loss at Philadelphia on May 7 and will get a chance to redeem himself when he toes the rubber tonight in the desert. Teheran allowed all three runs in 4 2/3 innings against the rival Phillies with one strikeout and two walks.

"I'd like to see what he can do the second time around, now that he got a taste of the big leagues," Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said on the club's website "I've got no doubt in my mind this kid is going to be a big part of our future."

After losing five straight games, the Diamondbacks have ripped off three wins in their past four contests and are coming off Tuesday's 6-1 victory versus San Diego in the finale of a two-game set.

Miguel Montero and Gerardo Parra each had two hits and two RBI, while Justin Upton and Stephen Drew both knocked in runs for Arizona, which is 1-1 on a seven-game homestand versus the Padres, Braves and Twins. Daniel Hudson got the win for the D'Backs and held San Diego to a run on eight hits in seven innings with six K's and a pair of walks.

"He pitched a good game," said Arizona manager Kirk Gibson. "Got into some jams, but got himself out of it. They were jumping his fastball early, and he started to throw some of the secondary stuff to really get them off that."

The Diamondbacks will also host Minnesota for three games and will hand the ball to winless starter Joe Saunders. Saunders is 0-5 with a 5.48 earned run average in eight starts and hasn't won since Sept. 21 against Colorado. He took the loss in Friday's 4-3 defeat at Los Angeles and allowed four runs -- three earned -- and six hits in 6 2/3 innings.

Saunders has yielded at least three earned runs in six of eight outings this season and defeated the Braves the only time he faced them in a 2-0 triumph back on June 15, 2008 as a member of the LA Angels. The lefty hurled 7 1/3 shutout innings that day with three strikeouts and no walks.

Atlanta and Arizona are meeting for the first time since the Braves took four of seven matchups a season ago.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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